Market demand
Markets Kalshi should make.
When an analysis cannot find a clean market for a risk, we leave it uncovered instead of forcing a fit. The analyst found 59 uncovered needs across 51 of 80 modeled business cases. Those figures are case evidence, not customer demand. Completed analyses add genuine uncovered risks separately. Public customer totals refresh automatically and appear only in privacy-safe groups of five.
Connecting to live Market Demand
Import and export currency risk
9 modeled business cases · $194,000 at risk (modeled)
A currency swing on imported or exported goods.
Contract brief for KalshiAn importer or exporter needs a payout when a named exchange rate makes its committed order uneconomic.
Will the Federal Reserve's published rate for a named currency cross a set level during this month?
- Where
- Named currency pair and United States dollar
- When
- Order date through invoice settlement
- Closest market
- Broad dollar and macroeconomic markets
- Why it misses
- A broad dollar move does not settle on the currency, direction, or invoice window the business actually faces.
Weather disruption
8 modeled business cases · $102,500 at risk (modeled)
Severe local weather: a storm, heat wave, or snow that shuts down the day.
Contract brief for KalshiA shop needs a payout when local weather shuts down the days that normally pay the bills.
Will measured rain, snow, or heat in a named city cross a set level during this month?
- Where
- Named city and named weather station
- When
- Calendar month or operating season
- Closest market
- Weather markets for a different city, peril, or shorter window
- Why it misses
- The payout can be real while the place, peril, or timing is wrong for the shop.
Financing rates
6 modeled business cases · $212,500 at risk (modeled)
A rise in the interest rate on a loan or credit line.
Contract brief for KalshiA borrower needs a payout when the reference rate on a loan or credit line stays above the level used in its budget.
Will the New York Fed's published SOFR average above a set percentage this month?
- Where
- United States dollar borrowing tied to SOFR
- When
- Calendar month, quarter, or loan reset period
- Closest market
- Federal Reserve decision and rate-cut-count markets
- Why it misses
- A policy decision does not directly settle on the realized reference rate or reset period written into the loan.
Metals and materials input costs
6 modeled business cases · $160,000 at risk (modeled)
A jump in the price of a core metal or building material.
Contract brief for KalshiA contractor needs a payout when a named material becomes too expensive for quoted jobs.
Will a named lumber, steel, or materials index end the month above a set level?
- Where
- United States, with the exact published index named
- When
- Calendar month or quarter
- Closest market
- Broad inflation and economic-growth markets
- Why it misses
- A broad price measure can move differently from the specific material on the invoice.
Regulatory and policy costs
6 modeled business cases · $162,500 at risk (modeled)
A new rule or policy that raises the cost of doing business.
Contract brief for KalshiAn owner needs a payout when a specific published rule creates a new operating cost.
Will a named final rule take effect by a set date with the specified cost threshold?
- Where
- Named federal agency or state
- When
- Rule publication through effective date
- Closest market
- Election and broad policy-outcome markets
- Why it misses
- An election result does not guarantee that the exact rule or cost will take effect.
Local event demand
6 modeled business cases · $99,500 at risk (modeled)
A local event or season that doesn't draw the usual crowd.
Contract brief for KalshiA venue, bar, or parking operator needs protection when the local crowd never arrives.
Will official attendance for a named team or venue exceed a set total this month?
- Where
- Named venue or home market
- When
- Single event, homestand, or calendar month
- Closest market
- Game winner and championship markets
- Why it misses
- Who wins does not directly measure whether enough customers came through the door.
Food and agricultural input costs
5 modeled business cases · $114,000 at risk (modeled)
A sharp jump in a core food or farm-input cost.
Contract brief for KalshiA restaurant, bakery, or farm needs a payout when one core ingredient or input jumps.
Will the published price for a named food or farm input average above a set level this month?
- Where
- Named national or regional USDA market
- When
- Calendar month or crop season
- Closest market
- Broad food indexes and adjacent crop markets
- Why it misses
- A basket or neighboring crop does not reliably follow the ingredient the business buys.
Broad customer demand
4 modeled business cases · $87,000 at risk (modeled)
A broad downturn in customer spending.
Contract brief for KalshiA shop needs protection when customers broadly cut the spending category it depends on.
Will monthly retail sales for a named category fall below a set level?
- Where
- United States and named retail category
- When
- Calendar month or quarter
- Closest market
- Official recession and headline growth markets
- Why it misses
- A recession call is much broader and slower than the category-level sales hit a shop feels.
Energy input costs
4 modeled business cases · $96,500 at risk (modeled)
A fuel or energy cost spike.
Contract brief for KalshiA carrier, shop, or manufacturer needs a payout when the exact fuel or power series on its bills stays expensive.
Will a named EIA fuel or electricity price series average above a set level this month?
- Where
- Named national or regional EIA series
- When
- Calendar month or operating season
- Closest market
- Crude-oil price markets
- Why it misses
- Crude oil can move differently from the delivered diesel, natural gas, or electricity price the business pays.
Promotion liability
3 modeled business cases · $69,000 at risk (modeled)
A risk with no clean Kalshi market yet.
Contract brief for KalshiA bar, retailer, or dealer needs a payout when a promotion tied to a local team or event becomes payable.
Will a named team reach a named playoff round in the specified season?
- Where
- Named team, league, and season
- When
- Promotion launch through the qualifying game
- Closest market
- Single-game winner and championship markets
- Why it misses
- The promotion may trigger on a playoff berth or round that no current contract settles directly.
