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How closely markets match business risks

Each point is a market Blanket has checked. Points near the centre track a business risk more directly; points farther out are less direct matches. This page shows only stored scans, so it is not a complete picture of what is tradable.

13
markets checked in a scan
22
markets shown
102
business types found
497
named businesses found
14
scans included
Scans included14

Your businessA closer point means a closer match.

Earthquake in California75 out of 100, Confidence score
Egg prices88 out of 100, Confidence score
Fed meeting95 out of 100, Confidence score
Fed funds rate at year end95 out of 100, Confidence score
Pro Basketball Champion45 out of 100, Confidence score
Professional Football Game10 out of 100, Confidence score
Will the average temperature in Texas (DFW & IAH) fall below 20°F for at least 2 days within a 4-day span?70 out of 100, Confidence score
Unemployment spike65 out of 100, Confidence score
WTI oil weekly range90 out of 100, Confidence score
Hurricanes55 out of 100, Confidence score
Jobs numbers70 out of 100, Confidence score
Annual GDP45 out of 100, Confidence score
Highest temperature in Los Angeles70 out of 100, Confidence score
KXDEPORTATIONSnot checked
KXEFFRnot checked
KXFEDnot checked
KXFERTnot checked
KXGOLDDIRYnot checked
KXMLBGAMEnot checked
KXMORTGAGERATEnot checked
KXRECSSNBERnot checked
KXWTIMAXnot checked
10 uncovered needsImports and currency8 uncovered needsWeather6 uncovered needsLocal events6 uncovered needsLoan payments6 uncovered needsMaterials6 uncovered needsTariffs and rules5 uncovered needsFood costs4 uncovered needsCustomer traffic4 uncovered needsFuel and power4 uncovered needsPromo idea

Map XIV. Market matches. Updated August 6, 2026.

On smaller screens, the map is shown as a full list.

Markets shown here

Tracks the risk itself

This market settles on the event that would cost the business money.

  • Earthquake in California

    KXEARTHQUAKECALIFORNIAClimate and Weather

    Confidence score75 out of 100

    • Tracks the risk itself
    • Tracks a closely related event
    • Tracks something related

    46 businesses found, 8 business types

    View the scan

  • Egg prices

    KXEGGSEconomics

    Confidence score88 out of 100

    • Tracks the risk itself
    • Tracks a closely related event
    • Tracks something related

    90 businesses found, 18 business types

    View the scan

  • Fed meeting

    KXFEDDECISIONEconomics

    Confidence score95 out of 100

    • Tracks the risk itself
    • Tracks a closely related event
    • Tracks something related

    35 businesses found, 8 business types

    View the scan

  • Fed funds rate at year end

    KXFEDFUNDSYEAREconomics

    Confidence score95 out of 100

    • Tracks the risk itself
    • Tracks a closely related event
    • Tracks something related

    23 businesses found, 6 business types

    This scan was not published, so there is nothing to replay.

  • Pro Basketball Champion

    KXNBASports

    Confidence score45 out of 100

    • Tracks the risk itself

    24 businesses found, 5 business types

    This scan was not published, so there is nothing to replay.

  • Professional Football Game

    KXNFLGAMESports

    Confidence score10 out of 100

    • Tracks the risk itself
    • Tracks something related

    19 businesses found, 5 business types

    This scan was not published, so there is nothing to replay.

  • Will the average temperature in Texas (DFW & IAH) fall below 20°F for at least 2 days within a 4-day span?

    KXTXURIClimate and Weather

    Confidence score70 out of 100

    • Tracks the risk itself
    • Tracks a closely related event
    • Tracks something related

    48 businesses found, 8 business types

    View the scan

  • Unemployment spike

    KXU3MAXEconomics

    Confidence score65 out of 100

    • Tracks the risk itself
    • Tracks something related

    44 businesses found, 8 business types

    View the scanWorked case

  • WTI oil weekly range

    KXWTIWCommodities

    Confidence score90 out of 100

    • Tracks the risk itself
    • Tracks a closely related event
    • Tracks something related

    36 businesses found, 7 business types

    View the scan

Tracks a closely related event

This market settles on an event closely related to the business risk.

  • Hurricanes

    KXHURRICANEClimate and Weather

    Confidence score55 out of 100

    • Tracks a closely related event
    • Tracks something related

    22 businesses found, 5 business types

    This scan was not published, so there is nothing to replay.

  • Jobs numbers

    KXPAYROLLSEconomics

    Confidence score70 out of 100

    • Tracks a closely related event
    • Tracks something related

    34 businesses found, 7 business types

    This scan was not published, so there is nothing to replay.

Tracks something related

This market may move with the risk, but the two can separate.

  • Annual GDP

    KXGDPYEAREconomics

    Confidence score45 out of 100

    • Tracks something related

    35 businesses found, 6 business types

    View the scan

  • Highest temperature in Los Angeles

    KXHIGHLAXClimate and Weather

    Confidence score70 out of 100

    • Tracks something related

    48 businesses found, 13 business types

    View the scan

Match not checked

Blanket has not rated how closely this market tracks a business risk.

  • KXDEPORTATIONS

    Confidence scoreNo confidence score recorded.

    Added from a worked example. Blanket has not checked this market in a scan.

    Worked case

  • KXEFFR

    Confidence scoreNo confidence score recorded.

    Added from a worked example. Blanket has not checked this market in a scan.

    Worked case

  • KXFED

    Confidence scoreNo confidence score recorded.

    Added from a worked example. Blanket has not checked this market in a scan.

    Worked caseWorked caseWorked case

  • KXFERT

    Confidence scoreNo confidence score recorded.

    Added from a worked example. Blanket has not checked this market in a scan.

    Worked caseWorked caseWorked case

  • KXGOLDDIRY

    Confidence scoreNo confidence score recorded.

    Added from a worked example. Blanket has not checked this market in a scan.

    Worked case

  • KXMLBGAME

    Confidence scoreNo confidence score recorded.

    Added from a worked example. Blanket has not checked this market in a scan.

    Worked case

  • KXMORTGAGERATE

    Confidence scoreNo confidence score recorded.

    Added from a worked example. Blanket has not checked this market in a scan.

    Worked caseWorked case

  • KXRECSSNBER

    Confidence scoreNo confidence score recorded.

    Added from a worked example. Blanket has not checked this market in a scan.

    Worked caseWorked caseWorked case

  • KXWTIMAX

    Confidence scoreNo confidence score recorded.

    Added from a worked example. Blanket has not checked this market in a scan.

    Worked caseWorked case

Risks with no useful market

Business risks that Blanket could not match to a listed market. Only grouped counts are shown.

  • Imports and currency

    A currency swing on imported or exported goods.

    10 uncovered needs, 9 business cases

    See missing markets

  • Weather

    Severe local weather: a storm, heat wave, or snow that shuts down the day.

    8 uncovered needs, 8 business cases

    See missing markets

  • Local events

    A local event or season that doesn't draw the usual crowd.

    6 uncovered needs, 6 business cases

    See missing markets

  • Loan payments

    A rise in the interest rate on a loan or credit line.

    6 uncovered needs, 6 business cases

    See missing markets

  • Materials

    A jump in the price of a core metal or building material.

    6 uncovered needs, 6 business cases

    See missing markets

  • Tariffs and rules

    A new rule or policy that raises the cost of doing business.

    6 uncovered needs, 6 business cases

    See missing markets

  • Food costs

    A sharp jump in a core food or farm-input cost.

    5 uncovered needs, 5 business cases

    See missing markets

  • Customer traffic

    A broad downturn in customer spending.

    4 uncovered needs, 4 business cases

    See missing markets

  • Fuel and power

    A fuel or energy cost spike.

    4 uncovered needs, 4 business cases

    See missing markets

  • Promo idea

    A risk with no clean Kalshi market yet.

    4 uncovered needs, 3 business cases

    See missing markets

What the map shows

Distance from the centre
Markets near the centre settle on the business risk itself. Markets farther out track something related that may move differently.
If a market matches several risks, its closest match sets its place on the map. The list below shows every recorded match.
Markets with the same match quality share a circle. Crowded circles are drawn wider only to keep labels readable.
Brightness
Brighter points received a higher confidence score when Blanket checked them. Brightness does not show price, trading volume, popularity, or the number of businesses.
Missing markets
Risks people asked about but Blanket could not match to a useful market.
  1. Tracks the risk itselfThis market settles on the event that would cost the business money.
  2. Tracks a closely related eventThis market settles on an event closely related to the business risk.
  3. Tracks something relatedThis market may move with the risk, but the two can separate.
  4. Match not checkedBlanket has not rated how closely this market tracks a business risk.

Public companies

Hedgebook companies linked to the same market. Blanket shows the count and links to Hedgebook for details.

No market on this page has a Hedgebook entry, so there is nothing to link to.

Built from scans through August 6, 2026.